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New Poll From RuralOrganizing.org Shows Democratic Candidates Cutting Rural Margins in Critical 2020 Battleground States

Media Contact: Matt Hildreth
202.631.3417 |  Matt@RuralOrganizing.org 

Columbus, OH — Today, RuralOrganizing.org released the findings from a poll of 7,004 rural and exurban voters fielded from June 30 to July 13, 2020 in seven Senate battleground states (Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Montana and North Carolina) and the critical presidential swing state of Wisconsin.  

Results show that Joe Biden and Senate Democratic candidates are cutting Republican margins in 2020 battleground states in rural and exurban areas — turf usually considered prime territory for Republicans. However, findings also show that a significant number of rural and exurban voters are still undecided in close Senate races across the country.

The toplines of the poll can be found here and the results of the eight state races are below.

The following is a statement from Matt Hildreth, Executive Director of RuralOrganizing.Org: 

The road to a more progressive America, particularly in the U.S. Senate, runs through rural America. This year,  rural and exurban voters will be pivotal in determining who controls the Senate. Our new poll of rural battleground voters shows that rural Americans aren’t Trump voters, they are swing voters. And we find that rural communities of color—especially in Georgia and North Carolina—will be critical this election year.

The results  from our polling indicate that Democrats are cutting the Republican 2016 margins in rural and exurban communities and that this marginal improvement may flip numerous local, state, and federal races from red to blue in November.

Using TargetSmart Data, we estimate that 45% of the total nationwide electorate this fall will be from rural or exurban zip codes, and in many of the Senate battleground states it’s even higher. In each of these states, the Senate Democratic candidates are well-funded and would be wise to focus outreach efforts on base voters in rural and exurban areas.

Key findings among rural and exurban voters in battleground states:


Alaska President

  • Democrat Joe Biden - 36%

  • Republican Donald Trump -  44%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 20%

Alaska Senate

  • Independent Al Gross - 30%

  • Republican Dan Sullivan - 42%

  • Undecided - 28% 

Georgia President

  • Democrat Joe Biden - 45%

  • Republican Donald Trump - 45%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 9%

Georgia Senate “A” (Ossoff v Perdue)

  • Democrat Jon Ossoff - 42%

  • Republican David Perdue - 46%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 12%

Georgia Senate “B”

  • Democrat Raphael Warnock - 16%

  • Democrat Matt Lieberman - 20%

  • Republican Doug Collins - 22%

  • Republican Kelly Loeffler - 20%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 22%

Iowa President

  • Democrat Joe Biden - 45%

  • Republican Donald Trump - 45%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 10%

Iowa Senate

  • Democrat Theresa Greenfield - 44%

  • Republican Joni Ernst - 42%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 15%

Kansas President

  • Democrat Joe Biden - 38%

  • Republican Donald Trump - 49%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 13% 

Kansas Senate (Bollier v Marshall)

  • Democrat Barbara Bollier - 36%

  • Republican Roger Marshall - 41%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 22%

Kansas Senate (Bollier v Kobach)

  • Democrat Barbara Bollier - 41%

  • Republican Kris Kobach - 38%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 21% 

Maine President

  • Democrat Joe Biden - 50%

  • Republican Donald Trump - 42%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 8%

Maine Senate

  • Democrat Sara Gideon - 47%

  • Republican Susan Collins - 41%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 12

Montana President

  • Democrat Joe Biden - 40%

  • Republican Donald Trump - 52%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 8%

Montana Senate

  • Democrat Steve Bullock - 44%

  • Republican Steve Daines - 46%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 10%

Montana Governor

  • Democrat Mike Cooney - 43%

  • Republican Greg Gianforte - 47%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 11%

Montana House

  • Democrat Kathleen Williams - 44%

  • Republican Matt Rosendale - 46%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 10%

North Carolina President

  • Democrat Joe Biden - 45%

  • Republican Donald Trump - 47%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 8%

North Carolina Senate

  • Democrat Cal Cunningham - 43%

  • Republican Thom Tillis - 42%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 16%

North Carolina Governor

  • Democrat Roy Cooper - 47%

  • Republican Dan Forest - 43%

  • Undecided/Not sure - 10%

Wisconsin President

  • Democrat Joe Biden - 48%

  • Republican Donald Trump - 42%

  • Undecided/Not sure  - 10%

Methodology

This survey is based on 7,004 interviews conducted on the internet by YouGov of registered voters residing and registered to vote in rural ZIP codes in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, Wisconsin. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, US Census region, and 2016 Presidential vote choice based on the American Community Study and the Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement and the Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement. Respondents were selected from YouGov to be representative of registered voters. State-level weights were computed separately for each state.

The mission of RuralOrganizing.org  is to rebuild a rural America that is empowered, thriving, and equitable. Follow us on Twitter @RuralOrganizing.

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