There are various strategies for moving the needle forward and building progressive power in rural communities. From policies to messaging, there’s always room for debate about the next best way to do things. The one thing that remains constant and reliable is the data.
Numbers don’t lie.
In that vein, we used data from the 2020-2022 election cycles to put together a list of Top 100 Rural Counties for Power Building in 2024. That list included 17 states across the country where we could make a substantial impact in the upcoming election cycle. As a side project, we did the same thing for Kentucky’s 2023 Gubernatorial election using the data from 2019-2022 elections.
We ended with five rural counties in Kentucky that we felt could flip for the 2023 Governor’s race: Bourbon, Boyle, Daviess, Hardin, and Nelson. Each of these counties had a margin of 5% or less in the 2019 Gubernatorial election and four of the five voted no to removing abortion protections from the constitution in 2022.
| KentuckyCounty | 2019 Gubernatorial | 2022 Remove Abortion Constitution | 2023 Gubernatorial |
| Bourbon | 48.1% D 50.1% R | NO | 54.0% D 46.0% R |
| Boyle | 49.0% D 49.1% R | NO | 52.8% D 47.1% R |
| Daviess | 47.0% D 50.6% R | YES | 51.1% D 48.9% R |
| Hardin | 46.5% D 51.3% R | NO | 49.7% D 50.3% R |
| Nelson | 48.5% D 49.3% R | NO | 50.6% D 49.3% R |
Although Hardin County didn’t flip, it gained 3 percentage points and had a voting difference of just 175 votes. These are strong gains that could be capitalized on for the upcoming 2024 election cycle.
Gov. Beshear’s family background provides a unique perspective to his campaign and results, but the data still shows that rural counties that were previously strong conservative communities are shifting. If we follow this data into 2024 with focused messaging, strong organizing, and deep canvassing, we will continue to see rural counties shift and progressive power building across the country.
To get more information on our Top 100 Counties for Power Building including the Deep Dive Presentations and Zoom Recordings, click this link.
